Growth plan for Live Tinted, 3 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Live Tinted already has the proof: HUESKIN Hydrating Serum Concealer comes in 25 variants at $29.00, and 1014 Reviews sit on one page. The plan turns that range into tested ads and holds target CAC at $14.88.
- Target CAC
- $14.88
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
Hold CAC at $14.88 while the shade range does the selling
One number to protect: target CAC of $14.88. It is 0.6 of the $24.80 ceiling, so a miss still leaves room. Live Tinted sells a $29.00 concealer and a $42.00 Huestick; every ad is judged against that one line.
Protect
Target CAC: $14.88 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $31 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $24.80. Guard line = 0.6 × $24.80 = $14.88. Across the ranges: $0.51 to $1,728.00.
Three moves
- Kill losers early: any ad that cannot beat the guard line of $14.88 is paused before it eats budget.
- Test one variable per ad, so each result teaches something about the shade range or the Sampler offer.
- Scale only winners, and only while CAC stays at or under the target.
- Reviews shown on one product page
- 1014
- Published
- variants of HUESKIN Hydrating Serum Concealer
- 25
- Published
- free shipping threshold on orders
- $40+
- Published
02 Variety
25 concealer shades give every ad a different reason to buy
Each ad concept has to carry one reason to buy: a shade match, a skin concern, a protection claim or a price. Live Tinted has all four, from 25 concealer variants to a $5.00 Sampler, so no concept needs to repeat another.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Works for all skin tones | The award-winners and cult faves that work for all skin tones (yes, really). | 9 |
| Free shipping | FREE SHIPPING on orders $40+ | 3 |
| Brighter, less puffy eyes | 91% said eyes looked brighter and less puffy | 2 |
| First order offer | Sign up for SMS alerts and get 20% off your first order! | 1 |
| Skincare-powered complexion | A skincare-powered formula that visibly brightens and helps reduce the look of darkness over time. | 1 |
| Primer that blurs | Swipe on to blur pores, control shine, and lock in your look—it’s the magic step for your best makeup yet. | 1 |
| Concealer that lasts | Conceals under-eye circles, dark spots & blemishes for up to 12 hours | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Free shipping at $40+ and a $5.00 Sampler shape the risks
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shade match fails on camera when a creator shows the wrong undertone | Med | High | Both | Every creator brief names the shade and undertone; one mismatch flagged in review pauses that video. |
| Orders under the $40+ free-shipping line may pull average order below the $31 assumption | Med | Med | Me | Week one reads actual average order; if under $31, the ceiling is recalculated before week two spend. |
| The $5.00 Sampler draws trial buyers who never buy full size | Med | High | Your team | Track the $5 off code; if it is redeemed on no order by day 30, the Sampler stops leading ads. |
| Tracking is incomplete, so CAC is read wrong | High | High | Your team | Purchase events match store order counts before any spend beyond the first $3,000 week. |
| Hueguard SPF and Superbright Vitamin C claims in ads drift past the brand's own wording | Med | High | Both | Every claim in an ad matches a line on the claims sheet, checked before launch. |
| Creator videos arrive late, so new ads stall below 12 a week | Med | Med | Me | Creators live and videos a week match the month-one table; a two-week gap pauses new intake. |
| A winning ad fatigues as spend scales | High | Med | Me | A winner whose CAC passes $14.88 for several days running is replaced from the hook library. |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The $24.80 ceiling is a guess until week one replaces it
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $31 (range $0.98–$1,280.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $24.80 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $14.88 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $31 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $24.80. Guard line = 0.6 × $24.80 = $14.88. Across the ranges: $0.51 to $1,728.00.
Range across the assumptions: $1 to $1,728.
The $24.80 ceiling is $31 × 40% × (1 + 1): average order, margin and repeat orders are my guesses, not Live Tinted facts. Week one replaces them with your real numbers.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests, $24,000 total, before any scaling
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $15 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $15 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $15 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $15 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $15 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $15 |
Six weeks, $250 per ad. Weeks one and two test 12 ads each ($3,000 a week), weeks three and four 12–20 ads ($4,000), weeks five and six 20 ads ($5,000). Total $24,000 of tests, and losers are killed early.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
A line from $5.00 to $168.00 gives enough ads to test volume
Hit rate and spend per winner are assumptions: 20 concepts give 2 winners and $18,000 added a month; 80 concepts give 8 winners and $72,000. More concepts means more winners to scale at the same CAC.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
Of $100,000, most goes to the ads that already won
- Scaling winning Meta ads
- $45,000
- 45%
- Testing new concepts (the $24,000 ramp)
- $24,000
- 24%
- Creator pay and product seeding
- $20,000
- 20%
- Landing pages and reporting tools
- $11,000
- 11%
Test spend is the $24,000 ramp; the rest of the $100,000 follows winners and is Proposed.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 24% × $100,000 = $24,000; 20% × $100,000 = $20,000; 11% × $100,000 = $11,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first; TikTok Shop opens when the Hueglow drops prove out
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | From week one, with 12 ads on shade and Sampler hooks | Paid social is where a shade range can be shown on real skin. |
| TikTok Shop | When creator videos show a winner on the Hueglow drops | The brand already lists a Hueglow product titled for TikTok Shop. |
| Email and SMS | When paid traffic brings sign-ups worth following up | The brand already offers 20% off the first order for SMS sign-ups. |
| Google search | After Meta holds CAC under $14.88 for several days | Shade and undertone searches may catch buyers who are ready. |
| TikTok paid | After a creator hook proves itself on Meta | Creator-made videos can be reused as ads without a new shoot. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback decides: a $31 order at 40% margin must repay CAC
Payback is the real constraint. The PLAN rule: at a $31 order and 40% margin, a $15 CAC pays back after repeat orders, while $25 or $35 never does, so those stop. At $5, the first order already pays back with $19.80 left.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $12.40, $24.80.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5 | $12.40 | $24.80 | $19.80 | First order |
| $15 | $12.40 | $24.80 | $9.80 | After repeat orders |
| $25 | $12.40 | $24.80 | −$0.20 | Never: stop |
| $35 | $12.40 | $24.80 | −$10.20 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $5: $24.80 − $5 = $19.80 left; pays back: First order; CAC $15: $24.80 − $15 = $9.80 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $25: $24.80 − $25 = −$0.20 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $35: $24.80 − $35 = −$10.20 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: creative, creators and reporting, with no makeup track record
Covers
- Ad concepts and creative testing across the Live Tinted line
- Creator sourcing, briefs and the hook library
- Landing page briefs for the concealer, Huestick and Hueguard
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings, monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Event tracking build: I spec it, your team implements it
- Product formulas, shade development or claims approval
- Customer service, fulfilment and Extend shipping protection
- Any category experience: I have none in makeup
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Tracked CAC is readable and at least one concept sits near $14.88 after the first $6,000 of tests | Purchase events do not match store orders |
| Day 30 | At least one winner holds CAC under $14.88 across a full week of spend | Every concept above $24.80 CAC after $14,000 of tests |
| Day 60 | Blended CAC at or under $14.88 while spend rises | Blended CAC stays above $24.80 for two weeks |
| Day 90 | Repeat orders confirm payback inside the $24.80 ceiling | Cohorts fail payback at the real average order |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creative | 25 concealer variants and a $5.00 Sampler to build hooks on | A tested hook library, one variable per ad | 1st |
| creators | Huestick Complexion Stick has 20 variants at $42.00 | Creator roster and briefs by undertone | 2nd |
| claims sheet | Own wording: Vegan, Clean, Cruelty Free, Dermatologist Tested | One sheet of approved claims for ads | Week 1 |
| landing pages | 447 Reviews and 1014 Reviews shown on product pages | Ad-matched pages built around one shade or offer | 2nd |
| reporting | Free shipping at $40+ gives a clear order-value line | Daily CAC view and the event tracking spec | 1st |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 1014 Reviews shown on one product page | https://www.livetinted.com/ | Fact |
| 25 variants of HUESKIN Hydrating Serum Concealer | https://www.livetinted.com/products/hydrating-serum-concealer | Fact |
| $40+ free shipping threshold on orders | https://www.livetinted.com/ | Fact |
| Product prices $0.98–$1,280.00 | product prices in the site product data (70 products), read 2026-10-03 | Fact |
| $31 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $14.88 target CAC | 0.6 of the $24.80 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $24.80 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 24% / 20% / 11% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I read your real average order and margin, replace the $24.80 ceiling, write the claims sheet, and brief the first 12 ads around the concealer shades and the $5.00 Sampler. Then your team and I spec the tracking.
